Category Archives: Polling data

The Cellphone effect

Do you remember all the talk about how pollsters during the primaries were lowballing Obama’s numbers because cell phone only voters (read young people) were not being sampled?  I can testify that it’s not only “the youth vote” we’re talking about here as I have no landline phone and I’m not in the under 35 crowd.  I digress ….  Nate Silver, the total wonk-turned-celeb and genius behind fivethirtyeight.com has some analysis of this in currently polling.  Go check it out:  The Cell Phone Effect, Continued.  Essentially, he finds that in the polls which include cell numbers, Obama has a larger lead.

Note:  I know that I said I wasn’t going to say anything else about polling today besides:

     Polls mean nothing if they’re not backed up by votes.

But I spent many hours studying and debating this issue during the primaries and feel somewhat vindicated by Silver’s analysis.  So there.

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Polls

Here’s all I’m gonna say about polls today:

     Polls mean nothing if they’re not backed up by votes.

Yes, I’ve said this before.  But I’ll say it until I’m blue in the face:  It doesn’t matter who people say they’re going to vote for if they don’t actually go vote!!!  Go vote.  We are all counting on you.

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Need proof that we can’t take anything for granted?

In case you were resting on your laurels, sitting back and relaxing thinking that the polls look so good that we no longer need to work for the progressive cause, let me give you this evidence from Rasmussen Reports that we must keep fighting:

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows Barack Obama attracting 50% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 47%. This is the first time McCain has been within three points of Obama in more than a month and the first time his support has topped 46% since September 24 (see trends). One percent (1%) of voters prefer a third-party option and 2% are undecided.

Get that?  This is the closest this poll has been in more than a month.  This race is narrowing.  Work, fight, get out the vote!!!

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Filed under Barack Obama, John McCain, Polling data

Third debate polling: Who won?

Here’s the round up of polling post third debate.  As a note, ’cause I know you’ll ask, I could not, as usual, find numbers for Fox.  What I do know is that they reported that their focus group “overwhelmingly” thought Obama took the night and four of their undecideds had made up their minds by the end of the night … only they didn’t say for whom (or if they did, I missed it).

CBS News:  683 “uncommitted voters” and debate watchers:  53% Obama, 22% McCain, 25% Tie

CNN:  620 debate watchers: 58% Obama, 31% McCain

AOL unscientific poll:  47% Obama, 46% McCain, 7% neither (as of 6:44 am CT with 392,583 votes)

MSNBC unscientific poll:  54% Obama, 36% McCain, 2.6% Tie, 7.3% Not sure (as of 6:50 am CT with 579,893 responses)

Newsvine unscientific poll:  83.8% Obama, 13% McCain, 1.6% Tie, 1.6% Not sure (as of 6:52 am CT with 188,123 votes)

SurveyUSA poll:  878 CA debate watchers:  56% Obama, 28% McCain, 16% No clear winner

The MediaCurves poll is broken down by voter affiliation.  Of 1402 voters, it shows that Republicans thought McCain won 70% to 18%, Dems thought Obama won 81% to 10% and, most critically, Independents thought Obama won 60% to 30%.

If you know of another poll, please let me know.

The final take away is that Obama won all three debates, according to popular opinion.  You can see my round up of second debate poll results here.  You can see results from the VP debate here.

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Filed under Barack Obama, Debates, Polling data

New York Times poll

A New York Times poll, released last night, shows Obama with a 53% to 39% lead over McCain.  That was a big enough story to cause Reuters to put out an alert.  I’m on the run this morning so I don’t have time to dissect or discuss the numbers or what this means, but all you have to do is run over to the article and read for yourself.  They also have some great info on how much time the voters feel each candidate has spent talking about the issues vs. attacking.  (Note:  poll link and article link are different.)

A quick mention:  Rasmussen daily tracking has had Obama at least five points up over McCain in their daily tracking poll for 19 consecutive days, as of yesterday.

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McCain and Arizona

Rasmussen is reporting today that McCain has climbed to a 21 point lead over Obama in his home state of Arizona.  I find this very interesting after McCain could not convince any of his Congressmen … that’s not a single one … to vote for the bailout bill he was championing.  Were the Congressmen simply following their own ethics on this or were they listening to their constituents?  Given the fact that the House email servers were on the verge of crashing from sheer volume, I’d bet the latter.  We’ll see if this has any effect in future polls.

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Current Polling

The economic crisis, last Friday’s debate, and the Palin (un)phenom have all given Obama a boost in the polls.  Here are some numbers to show you what’s happening:

1.  Rasmussen’s Daily Presidential Tracking Poll for today (Tuesday 9/30) is the first one to contain completely post-debate data and it has Obama up 6 pts, 51% – 45%, over McCain.  Obama went into the debate with a 5 point advantage over McCain in this poll and he has maintained a 5-6 point margin every since.

2.  Rasmussen also reports that in polling they did on Saturday and Sunday nights, voters indicate that they trust Obama more than McCain on all major issues … including the Iraq war.

3.  The latest (9/29) CNN “Poll of Polls” report shows Obama up 47% – 43% over McCain.

4.  Obama is up in key battleground states, gaining a net of 3-5 points in OH, PA, CO, FL, and VA.  Pennsylvania is the most startling, with Obama up eight points, 50% – 42%.

It will be interesting to see if there are any shifts or changes in these  numbers after the Biden / Palin debate on Thursday.

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